Curving Futures

A Rally Built on Financials?

Curving Futures — Fri, 15 May 2009 02:15:20 +0000

Presented below are the eps estimates as of the 4th of april, compared to the 11th of May…for 2009.

…and for 2010:

Another bearish week of estimates

Curving Futures — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 02:28:47 +0000

In a short seven days, analysts slashed estimates across all of 2009 quarterly numbers. I don’t care if they are wrong on specific numbers, normally a flock of analysts, will get the right trend.

…here’s a chart comparing estimates from the 7th vs the 28th.

…here’s the same chart, but for the 1500, rather than the 500.

I thought this was cool…

Not that I think these analysts estimates will end up even close to right, but I have to think, the trend of their estimates (moving higher, or moving lower) should at least correlate with price action.

14 Days

Curving Futures — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 03:25:55 +0000

In 14 days, analysts have lowered their estimates of quartlerly earnings for 2009…despite this, the S&P is slightly higher than where it was 14 days ago.

Backwardation to Contango, then back again?

Curving Futures — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 02:25:58 +0000

It was The Oil Drum who pointed out and plotted about 10 months ago, the single span of a month it took to switch from backwardation to contango. Could we see the opposite as the world faces paralyzing economic conditions? Or will the world’s growth engine start back up so the back half of the curve never equals the front month again? Doesn’t look like the former, by the previous week, it looks more like later prediction could be coming to fruition.

Symbol	5 Sessions Ago	Yesterday’s Close	Change
CLK09.NYM (front month)	$50.04	$53.80	+7.5%
CLV09.NYM (+6 months)	$54.39 (8.7%)	$60.27 (12%)	+10.8%
CLJ10.NYM (+12 months)	$57.50 (14.9%)	$64.72 (20.3%)	+12.6%

Curiosity killed the cat.

3 Weeks of Contango, Coming Down

Curving Futures — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 21:34:20 +0000

Below is a plot of the CL contracts from February 24th, compared to March 13th. Almost 3 weeks of pressure on the back half while front month buyers came in.